Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

>> Wednesday, June 30, 2010



Dell's woes are in the news, how they had potentially millions of business/education computers with faulty motherboards.

There's quite a story there. Apparently, there was a family of electrolytic aluminum capacitors manufactured in Taiwan that became very popular even though they were only a fraction less expensive than the Japanese parts. Millions were used only to find that they were counterfeit, using an flawed formula that caused failure, often within six months.

Dell, of course, was not the only victim of these counterfeit parts. Many were duped (estimated cost of this specific set of faulty capacitors was estimated at $100 million (though I'm not sure that tally's done). Many no doubt had to replace equipment as a result. Dell's reaction stands out because of the denial of problems and replacing defective parts with more defective parts. You know, sharing the pain.

But the part that gets me is that the thinking that allows a counterfeit part to get into critical equipment, the thinking that saving a penny today without understanding the repercussions is fine. It's behind the BP fiasco. It's behind many so many companies being taken in by counterfeiters, too. They don't take the trouble - after all, many times, the consumer will be the one to suffer if the parts fail earlier than intended with minimal repercussions on their own.

But, as BP and Dell both know now, that thinking can backfire, rather dramatically.

We need to be thinking of this kind of thing as we make decisions today. I understand how tempting it can be to save a penny here and there today and figure that will do. But, in the long run, doing it right the first time always costs less than redoing it, particularly after it's been put into use, put into space, put in a critical component.

Often much much more.

Read more...

Venus

>> Tuesday, June 29, 2010


Have I ever mentioned that Venus was my favorite planet? I mean, aside from the one I live on? Pretty. Jewel-like, in many ways, our earth's twin. Venus.

Venus is beautiful, only a fraction smaller than our planet and the closest one to us, a just a step nearer the sun. There are volcanoes on Venus but no moon (though one was repeatedly observed early on - read about it here) and it can generally be seen with the naked eye (often called "The Evening Star"). It is, in fact, the brightest object in the night besides the sun and moon.

But it's isn't friendly. The temperature is over 450 degrees C and the pressure is 90 times our own. Carbon dioxide predominates in that atmosphere leading to a runaway greenhouse effect that makes the surface, hidden shyly beneath thick sulfurous clouds, an inferno.

Unlike our planet, cloaked with a strong magnetic field second only to Jupiter's, Venus has no magnetic field. It also rotates backwards and very very slowly. It takes 243 days for it to rotate once about its axis. In fact, it rotates so slowly, the day is more than 18 days longer than a Venusian year. (The orbit, itself, is not retrograde, though it is the most circular of all the planets' orbits.) Venus approaches closer than any other planet to Earth and, for reasons we're not entirely sure of, always shows us the same face.

The real question, I think, for many of us science, space and science fiction geeks is, was it always like that? Did it once have water, perhaps life before either its position, its atmosphere or some cataclysm changed the dynamic?

I don't know when, if ever, we'll know about life or if it changed for some specific reason, but we're figuring out the answer to if it ever had water today, thanks to ESA's Venus Express (and here), we are gathering data that tells us that Venus did once have considerably more water than it has now.

Fascinating stuff, Venus. By the way, in 2012 we'll have another transit of Venus, where Venus travels right between the Earth and the Sun. Although it happened in 2004, it's a rare occurance, once we won't see again until 2117. Check it out!

Read more...

RS Classic: Saturday Quote-a-Thon - Movie Quotes

>> Saturday, June 26, 2010



Gotta love the movies.

Still, since we’re in movie quote mode, I might as well show some quotes I keep on my quote list mostly ’cause they make me laugh. Some I gathered from Wikiquote at one point or another or from IMDB in the past. Some are from memory, so no promises I didn’t flub a couple, but you get the gist.

Ms. Perky: People perceive you as somewhat…
Kat: Tempestuous?
Ms. Perky: “Heinous bitch” is the term used most often. You might want to work on that.
-From 10 Things I Hate About You

Father: Hello, Kat, made anyone cry today?
Kat: Sadly, no, but it’s only 4:30.
-From 10 Things I Hate About You

Ms. Perky: You’ll be pleased to know his testicle retrieval operation was successful.
Kat: I still maintain he kicked himself in the balls.
-From 10 Things I Hate About You

Dionne Davenport: Hello! There was a stop sign.
Cher Horowitz: I totally paused.
-From Clueless

Josh Lucas: If I ever saw you do anything that wasn’t 90% selfish I’d die of shock.
Cher Horowitz: Oh, that’d be reason enough for me.
-From Clueless

Mel: Anything happens to my daughter, I got a .45 and a shovel, I doubt you would be missed.
-From Clueless

Morticia: Margaret, about the séance tonight, I wish you’d come. It’s Gomez. I’m terribly worried about him. He won’t eat, he can’t sleep, he keeps coughing up blood.
Margaret: He coughs up blood?
Morticia: Well, not like he used to.
-From The Addams Family

Insanity runs in my family. It practically gallops.
-Mortimer Brewster in Arsenic and Old Lace

[on telephone] Hello… Operator? Can you hear my voice? You can? Are you sure? [Hangs up] Well, then I must not be dreaming.
-Mortimer Brewster in Arsenic and Old Lace

I love it when mothers get so mad they can’t remember your name. “Come here, Roy, er, Rupert, er, Rutabaga… what is your name, boy? And don’t lie to me, because you live here, and I’ll find out who you are.
-From Bill Cosby: Himself

Vance: [after telling Hitch that he only wants a girl so he can sleep with her] No, I was told that you help guys get in there.
Alex Hitch Hitchens: Right, but see, here’s the thing - my clients actually like women. “Hit it and quit it” is not my thing.
Vance: Let me make one thing clear to you, rabbi, I need professional help.
Alex Hitch Hitchens: Well, that is for damn certain
-From Hitch

Vance: [grabs Hitch by the wrist] You see what I’m doing? This is what I’m about - power suit, power tie, power steering. People can wince, cry, beg, but eventually they do what I want.
Alex Hitch Hitchens: Oh! So that’s, like, a metaphor?
Vance: Oh, yeah.
Alex Hitch Hitchens: Right. Well, see, I’m more of a literal kind of guy. So when I do this… [he reverses the grip, twists Vance’s arm back and slams him on the table]
Alex Hitch Hitchens: This is more like me saying that I will literally break your shit off if you ever touch me again. Okay, pumpkin?
-From Hitch

Moses - “The lord Jehovah has given you these fifteen… [drops stone tablet] Oi. Ten! Ten commandments for all to obey!”
-From History of the Word, Part I

Memo to me, memo to me: maim you after my meeting.
-From Hercules

This is one time where television really fails to capture the true excitement of a large squirrel predicting the weather.
-From Groundhog Day

What if there is no tomorrow? There wasn’t one today.
-From Groundhog Day

Mr. Newberry: So, what have you been doing with your life?
Martin: Um… professional killer.
Mr. Newberry: Ah, good for you! It’s a growth industry
-From Gross Pointe Blank

Dr. Peter Venkman: Hey Egon, you know, this reminds me of the time that you tried to drill a hole through your head.
Dr. Egon Spengler: That would have worked if you hadn’t stopped me.
-From Ghostbusters

Chief Karlin: What’s your name?
Fletch: Fletch.
Chief Karlin: What’s your full name?
Fletch: Fletch F. Fletch.
Chief Karlin: What do you do for a living, Mr. Fletch?
Fletch: I’m a shepherd.
-From Fletch

Fletch: Can’t keep me here, chief.
Chief Karlin: Maybe I’m not going to keep you here. Maybe I’m going to blow your brains out.
Fletch: Well, now, I’m no lawyer, but… I do believe that’s a violation of my rights.
-From Fletch

Cameron: Ferris, my father loves this car more than life itself.
Ferris: A man with priorities so far out of whack doesn’t deserve such a fine automobile.
-From Ferris Bueller’s Day Off

Willie Wang: Why do I do all the dirty work, Pop?
Sidney Wang: Because your mother not here to do it.
-From Murder by Death

Willie Wang: Pop?
Sidney Wang: Yeah?
Willie Wang: Who do you think is the murderer?
Sidney Wang: Must sleep on it. Will know in morning when wake up.
Willie Wang: What if you don’t wake up?
Sidney Wang: Then you did it.
-From Murder by Death

Vinny: Ms. Vito, you’re supposed to be some kinda expert in automobiles, is that correct?… Is that correct?
Judge Haller: Would you please answer the counselor’s question?
Lisa: No, I hate him.
Vinny: Your Honor, may I treat this witness as hostile?
Mona Lisa: You think I’m hostile now? Wait ’til tonight.
Judge Haller: Do you two know each other?
Vinny: Yeah, she’s my fiancée.
Judge Haller: Well, that would certainly explain the hostility
-From My Cousin Vinny

You know, these clothes do not fancy you at all. It should be a dress or nothing. I happen to have no dress in my cabin.
-Jack Sparrow from Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man’s Chest

I’m listening. [Elizabeth holds a gun to his face] I’m listening intently.
-Lord Becket from Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man’s Chest

Elizabeth: There will come a moment when you have a chance to do the right thing.
Jack: I love those moments. I like to wave at them as they pass by.
-From Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man’s Chest

Me, I’m dishonest. And a dishonest man you can always trust to be dishonest. Honestly. It’s the honest ones you want to watch out for. Because you can never predict when they’re going to do something incredibly… stupid.
-Jack Sparrow from Pirates of the Carribean: Curse of the Black Pearl

I am disinclined to acquiesce to your request. Means no.
-Barbossa from Pirates of the Carribean: Curse of the Black Pearl

Self-realization. I was thinking of the immortal words of Socrates, when he said, “I drank what?”
-Chris Knight from Real Genius

Chris Knight: I’m sorry, but have you ever seen a body like this before in your life?
David Decker: She happens to be my daughter.
Chris Knight: Oh. Then I guess you have.
-From Real Genius

Karen: So what’s this big news, then?
Daisy: [excited] We’ve been given our parts in the nativity play. And I’m the lobster.
Karen: The lobster?
Daisy: Yeah!
Karen: In the nativity play?
Daisy: [beaming] Yeah, first lobster.
Karen: There was more than one lobster present at the birth of Jesus?
Daisy: Duh.
-From Love Actually

[talking about her ex-boyfriend]
Natalie: He says no one’s gonna fancy a girl with thighs the size of big tree trunks. Not a nice guy, actually, in the end.
Prime Minister: Ah! You know, um, being Prime Minister, I could just have him murdered.
Natalie: Thank you, sir. I’ll think about it.
Prime Minister: Do. The SAS are absolutely charming. Ruthless trained killers are just a phone call away.
-From Love Actually

Prime Minister: I’m not sure that politics and dating really go together.
The President: Really? I never found that.
Prime Minister: Yeah, well, the difference is you’re still sickeningly handsome, whereas I look increasingly like my Aunt Mildred.
-From Love Actually

Colin: [after insulting the food] And what do you do Nancy?
Nancy the caterer: I’m a cook.
Colin: Ever do weddings?
Nancy the caterer: Yes I do.
Colin: They should have asked you to do this one.
Nancy the caterer: They did.
Colin: God I wish you hadn’t turned it down.
Nancy the caterer: I didn’t.
-From Love Actually

Read more...

More on Anosognosic

>> Thursday, June 24, 2010


I am really liking this series on anosognosia (which is, apparently, the inability to acknowledge one has a disability) in the New York Times. There was the one I mentioned Monday (talking about people too incompetent to recognize their incompetence). Then, on Tuesday, there was one that dabbled with hysteria and women (historically speaking - I bet the Mother knows all about this), which was a little less my type of thing. It's irritating enough when "learned" men go on and on about what's wrong with women. When women play into it (whether deliberately or otherwise, well, I hate it). That goes for me with women who "play dumb" today, and there out there. I have yet to understand why a woman would be interested in impressing or pleasing a man who would prefer she be not so smart. But I digress.

However, Wednesday, there was an installment talking about how this phenomena might have influenced our involvement (or lack thereof) in the League of Nations and World War II. Heck, I'd never known that about Woodrow Wilson, that he had had a stroke at such a critical time or that his wife and aides worked so hard to ensure he didn't lose Presidential power as he recovered (somewhat).

Then, this morning, I read about how belief is not a monolithic thing and some speculation about how part of one's brain is dedicated to maintaining the status quo, furthering one's beliefs, and another part (the right brain) is devoted to questioning that status quo and challenging one's perceptions. Wow, that was a cool idea. Speculation isn't fact, but wouldn't that be an interesting premise to pursue, that one's critical thinking skills are tied one's right brain. Or maybe we already knew that. Anyway, cool reading.

Anyway, he finishes up talking about self-deception. Seriously, I enjoyed reading the whole thing.

Read more...

What you Don't Know You Don't Know

>> Monday, June 21, 2010


Read an interesting article today in the NYT (which I like reading, so there) which was discussing people ignorant of their ignorance.

Now before you start scratching your head wondering what I'm talking about, let me explain. Everyone has areas of expertise and incompetence, things they know well and things they don't know. Nothing wrong with that.

For instance, someone might not know all six wives of Henry VIII or why the fact he divorced his first was important. They don't know, but most might know they didn't know. However, there are others who won't have any idea who Henry VIII is or that he had several wives or that his need to throw his first wife over is a big factor in why that so many in North America are protestant. Unless you ask him, he doesn't realize he doesn't know nor likely care why you might think it's important.

There's nothing wrong with that. I know I don't know the proper formula for brick mortar. I also know that, if I decided to build a house by myself, I would have to learn a great deal I don't know (known unknowns) but there are likely dozens of other things I wouldn't even know I didn't know that could ruin what I was trying to do (unknown unknowns) and that I'd be foolish to attempt it without expert help.

The article was focused on these people who don't realize that there's so much they don't know. In the article, they were focused on incompetence/ignorance, people who were clueless about their cluelessness. And we all know folks like that. These are Darwin award winners and crooks too stupid to be believed. And talk show commentators. And, apparently, senators, or at least some of them.

But I don't want to talk about them. There are tons of posts and stories and articles about the chronically clueless. What I want to talk about is the fact that all of us - all of us - have some of these aspects, too, those areas where were are not only ignorant, but that we can't even objectively quantify our ignorance or the implications of our ignorance.

That's one of the things that drives me crazy in the space industry. Too many people think we've figured out all the unknowns, so we can cut our conservatism and safety margins to the bone. I say "nay nay," because I know those margins, those excesses, those versatilities are what kept Apollo 13 from being a tragedy and has saved our spacebuns many a time. Because there are accidents and failings you never even thought of, environments you never considered, aspects you just didn't see coming. (Though it's even more frustrating when people refuse to even address the problems you can readily see - but that's another story).

But it's not just true of space exploration. It's true of engineering and science, of course, but it's true of every day aspects of life. Unexpected illnesses or accidents happen. Jobs are lost. Things you didn't know you didn't know can bite you in the butt.

If we're smart, we not only acknowledge what we don't know, we look for experts where we can and prepare for the worst when there's no one that knows.

Read more...

Father's Day

>> Sunday, June 20, 2010

funny pictures of cats with captions
see more Lolcats and funny pictures

I am frequently grateful to my husband for husband-type things like listening, supporting and supremely mindbendingly good sex. I don't know if that last is really a husband-type thing, but he does it anyway.

Too infrequently, I acknowledge something else he goes the extra mile with: fatherhood. Whereas many mothers feel under-appreciated, especially when they spend the bulk of the time with the children, my husband is a stay-at-home dad.

That means, that, overall, he is spending far more time with the children than I am. It also means that he's setting the tone, setting up the routines, entertaining the small people and cleaning up their destruction each and every day. Having spent some time as a single mother, I know how much work that really is.

He doesn't do it entirely without complaint. But he does it, even though it limits his options career-wise until they get a bit bigger. His understanding of his children means that having two children that effectively don't speak hasn't kept us from communicating effectively with both of them.

So, here's to him and all the other dad's out there going above and beyond for the sake of their children, who understand that being a father means more than providing a few chromosomes and putting food on the table. It means handling crises and diapers and baths. It means playing and listening and feeding children. It means being part of their lives rather than props.

My husband understands that and that makes him a super dad.

Happy Father's Day!

Read more...

RS Classics: Saturday Quote-a-thon! Magic and Dragons

>> Saturday, June 19, 2010


Ah, yes, that's me all over, moving from hardcore science to magic and dragons. We do like to mix things up.

OK, folks, finding good dragon quotes is not so easy. So, I expanded it a bit to cover both magic and dragons and this is what I came up with. Sadly, I had to go searching for some. I didn’t have them already in my collection.

I believe in fairies, the myths, dragons. It all exists, even if it’s in your mind. Who’s to say that dreams and nightmares aren’t as real as the here and now?
-John Lennon

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
-Arthur C. Clarke

Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men’s blood and probably will themselves not be realized. Make big plans; aim high in hope and work, remembering that a noble, logical diagram once recorded will not die.
-Daniel Burnham

First rule of magic: Don’t let anyone know your real name. Names have power.
-Neil Gaiman

No magic can change something into something that it is not; the imaginative transformation at the heart magic is recognition, not creation.
-Susan Palwick

Love and magic have a great deal in common. They enrich the soul, delight the heart. And they both take practice.
-Nora Roberts, as quoted in Rainbow Bridge Farm (2003) by Lynn Roberson, p. 127

If we are to have magical bodies, we must have magical minds.
-Dr Wayne Dyer

Poetry is a kind of magic that very few can create and even fewer can truly understand and appreciate in all its glory.
-Dennis Gabor

A well-composed book is a magic carpet on which we are wafted to a world that we cannot enter in any other way.
-Caroline Gordon

Think of the magic of that foot, comparatively small, upon which your whole weight rests. It’s a miracle, and the dance is a celebration of that miracle.
-Martha Graham

One man’s “magic” is another man’s engineering. “Supernatural” is a null word.
-Robert A. Heinlein

When you start writing the magic comes when the characters seem to take on a life of their own and write the words for themselves.
-Alice Hoffman

Books are a uniquely portable magic.
-Stephen King

The great leaders are like the best conductors - they reach beyond the notes to reach the magic in the players.
-Blaine Lee

That’s the thing with magic. You’ve got to know it’s still here, all around us, or it just stays invisible for you.
-Charles de Lint

I suppose that writers should, in a way, feel flattered by the censorship laws. They show a primitive fear and dread at the fearful magic of print.
-John Mortimer

A great attitude does much more than turn on the lights in our worlds; it seems to magically connect us to all sorts of serendipitous opportunities that were somehow absent before the change.
-Earl Nightingale

The metaphor is perhaps one of man’s most fruitful potentialities. Its efficacy verges on magic, and it seems a tool for creation which God forgot inside one of His creatures when He made him.
-José Ortega y Gasset

There is real magic in enthusiasm. It spells the difference between mediocrity and accomplishment
-Norman Vincent Peale

It’s only in innocence you find any kind of magic, any kind of courage.
-Sean Penn

The first fall of snow is not only an event, it is a magical event. You go to bed in one kind of a world and wake up in another quite different, and if this is not enchantment then where is it to be found?
-J. B. Priestley

There’s a bit of magic in everything, and some loss to even things out.
-Lou Reed

Disbelief in magic can force a poor soul into believing in government and business.
-Tom Robbins

Here we have a game that combines the charm of a Pentagon briefing with the excitement of double-entry bookkeeping.
– Cecil Adams (On Dungeons & Dragons)


Then, because I’m easily amused, I included some bumper sticker/T-shirt dragon slogans.

If you can’t stand the heat, don’t tickle the dragon.

Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

When you find yourself in the company of a halfling and a Dragon, remember, you do not have to outrun the Dragon, you just have to outrun the halfling.


If you have any others you think I should add to the collection, don’t hesitate to share. I always like to add to my collection. And don’t forget to vote for next week. Vote well and vote often! Cheating encouraged!

(One commentor added two pertinent quotes so I'll include them here)

“For fantasy is true, of course. It isn’t factual, but it is true. Children know that. Adults know it too, and that is precisely why many of them are afraid of fantasy. They know that its truth challenges, even threatens, all that is false, all that is phony, unnecessary, and even trivial in the life they have let themselves be forced into living. They are afraid of dragons, because they are afraid of freedom.”
–Ursula K. Le Guin, “Why Are Americans Afraid of Dragons?”

“Make these stories dragons. Dragons can’t fly with unnecessary scales crusting them down, or with a hundred yards of tail dragging behind them. Make them strong instead, sleek, fast, aggressive, and filled with enough fire to toast the reader’s ass.”
–Limyaael, “Keeping Those Dragons Alive”

Read more...

RS Classic: Dissing Science

>> Friday, June 18, 2010


Another blast from the past.

Truth often suffers more by the heat of its defenders than from the arguments of its opposers.
–William Penn


Recently, I found myself hot under the collar. Now, don’t get me wrong, I have a temper. But this was all about science and I work very hard to keep my cool and professionalism when it comes to science – passion and science = bad science.

But I was beginning to understand why so many scientists and naysayers are getting into arguments just short of fistfights. It’s hard for even the best scientist to keep his or her temper down when they are being accused of lying and laziness.

This discussion is not going to be about religion. I truly believe in freedom of religion including anyone’s belief in Thor or the monster that hides under the bed. I have not been granted omniscience (aside from believing in fairies myself) and have no right to tell you what to believe in as long as (a) you don’t try to force it down my throat and (b) don’t try to pretend it’s science.

Science is a fascinating beastie. It’s all about finding out what and how reality is and, if possible, figuring out how to manipulate it for the betterment of mankind. Fortunately and unfortunately, reality is pretty slippery. It provides some facts pretty easily, some with a lot of work and some, well, it still hasn’t provided a clear answer. Fortunately, it’s what we don’t know that makes it fun. Unfortunately, what we don’t know (or, worse, think we know) can be very dangerous. For instance, long ago they tried blood transfusions under the correct assumption that blood can help when blood’s been lost. Unfortunately, their lack of knowledge about blood factors meant that some transfusions didn’t go too well so that it was an act of desperation until blood typing was discovered early in the 20th century.

It is because of this, the thrill and excitement (and the risk) of what we know and don’t know that scientists voluntarily subject themselves to strict rules and processes of rigor. Rules include repeatability (preferably independently), adequate controls, and theories that can be disabled with a single immutable fact (which is not the same as a single data point). All the data must be accounted for or explained; one cannot pick and choose the data. And, to be really recognized, it needs to withstand something called peer review.

Peer review? You expect them to police themselves? Yes, for two reasons. First, one cannot evaluate the science of a proposal, conclusion or bit of research without an in depth understanding of science and scientific processes. Generally, this effectively limits you to scientists or “former” scientists (if such things exist). Secondly, scientists want to be right. Being wrong, spectacularly, is not how any scientist wants to be remembered.

Yeah, but don’t we look after our own? Actually, not so much and there’s good reason. There is no benefit for a scientist to give a free pass on the work of another scientist. If the work is bogus or sloppy, the reviewers would be impugned (rightly) along with the researcher by their failure to look at it critically. Wherein politicians (and some other, but not all, professions) can generally make mistake after mistake and survive, in the scientific world, a single instance of dishonesty and/or sloppy work can ruin a career.

If someone does research and writes conclusions, a reviewer is obligated to try to shoot holes in it, find the problems, look for errors, whether the reviewer agrees with it or not, or we do a disservice not only to the rest of the world, but to the researcher. If it’s wrong, we don’t want to hang our hats on it (and we save the researcher some embarrassment). If it’s right, we want it to be as bulletproof as possible.

And people in the same field do not all agree (HAHAHAHAHA!) - far from it. It is, in fact, the hemming and hawing on details that have let so many less familiar with the process think that so many scientists disagree on global warming, when what they are really doing is trying to understand not IF there will be changes, but how much, how fast and what we can do to minimize it. On that, I feel comfortable saying consensus has not been reached. But it doesn’t mean the science is invalid.

Don’t get me wrong. Scientists get excited by findings, breakthroughs, new possibilities, verifications, etc. If we didn’t, we wouldn’t be here. And, yeah, anyone who does work they’re proud of likes recognition. That’s why we peer review and take our time accepting new ideas. If an idea can take being tested independently and repeatedly, if it can stand the test of time and many different people trying to poke holes in it, it stands a much better chance of being valid that if it came from one excited individual.

That’s one reason I get so hot under the collar at being accused of laxity or dishonesty. I’m part of those very checks and balances. Does nothing get by us? Sadly, yes, mistakes are made here and there. But they usually get caught eventually and the numbers (percentage-wise), I feel, are low. Truth told, I don’t know of any other profession that examines itself so critically, puts in so many impediments and challenges to ensure that integrity, that objectivity that makes science what it is. Because people do use that information in a life and death way, we have to be responsible with what we say.

Your doctor doesn’t have the same review process when he gives a prescription (though the basis for the treatments he'll suggest should have gone through the same rigorous process). Your mechanic doesn't even have that. Your lawyer can do all kinds of stupid things (at hundreds of dollars an hour). And there’s not much you can do to preclude mistakes being made by those you trust.

In most cases, there is little you can do except fire someone (after the fact, mostly likely) or in cases of egregious error, sue. In most cases, you just have to live with it. Think of how much better government might be if positions and arguments in government were vetted with the same rigor as science. (I find it ironic that people are more likely to be believe others who have a vested interest in persuading you to a point of view - bankers, big business, politicians – than those that have none.)

Believe me, folks, we don’t want to tell you bad news. There’s no glory or riches in telling people what they don’t want to hear. If we tell you, it’s because that’s what the evidence is telling us and we don’t want our unwillingness to put it on the line to cause anyone to be hurt unnecessarily. At the least, we have no interest in looking stupid.

In science, we really try to weed out the mistakes before you ever see our results. We’re human, but we want the truth out there more than we want our name on it. We’re not perfect, but we’re trying to do the right thing.

Cut us a little slack, k?

You know, some things never change.

Read more...

Outrage We Should Have Had

>> Thursday, June 17, 2010


Right now, there's a good bit of vitriole out there over the ecological catastrophe currently in work due to oil company negligence and lax regulation. But, I read a story today that boiled my blood, not because it means the spill in the Gulf is any less tragic and horrific, but because this is going on elsewhere in the world and we're either don't know or don't care.

According to this article in the New York Times, oil machinery, pipelines and wells (run largely by Shell) in Nigeria have been the cause of as much as 546 million barrels of oils spilled over the past fifty years in the delta region of Nigeria, which once served as the source of food for most of the country. That's ~50 Exxon Valdez spills, effectively one a year for the last five decades.

Water is contaminated. Fish and shellfish, crops and wildlife which supplied much of the country, are gone, far far out to sea or potentially contaminated. Corroded pipes, defunct wells, sabotage, oil thieves, vandals, all have contributed and it appears that everyone's pointing fingers at everyone else as responsible. But the oil, which supplies 80% of Nigeria's revenue, is not helping the natives that live with the fallout. They have some of the lowest life expectancies in the nation.

Now, I admit I have a pet peeve, the one where people get all caught up about a "local" (i.e. US) tragedy but shrug off horrors that happen to other people. I got hot under the collar when Hurricane Mitch was hardly noted in passing, even though it was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane in nearly a hundred years (and far deadlier than Hurricane Katrina, which doesn't even make the top 25). And it torques me that people who talk about the worst storms ever don't even note some of the horrific deadly typhoons that have devastated the Far East and Asia. The Bhola Cyclone that hit in 1970 killed between 300,000 and 500,000 people.

So, I don't think it's less tragic that Americans are facing ruin and the ecosystem is being ruined in the gulf than it is that people with little/nothing have less because of oil spills largely ignored in Nigeria. But I don't think it's more either. Clearly, holding our oil companies responsible for the damage they cause is long overdue, and not just off our own coast.

This shouldn't just outrage me.

Read more...

RS Classic: Science faux pas (and my movie pet peeves)

>> Wednesday, June 16, 2010


Given that I had my trash-Armageddon earlier, it seemed reasonable to replay this one from the same theme.

I can be irritating to watch movies with. I admit it. Unless I’m blown away by characters and/or dialog, little errors will bother me. And I’m vocal about it. I’m a history buff so trashing history will irk me, ditto with characters that make no damn sense. But many people are irritated by that. One thing that really gets me are “science fiction” movies where science was clearly not well thought out. Yesterday’s Armageddon blog demonstrated that a single movie can pretty much throw science in the toilet. But even the better movies can do things that defy science.

Here are some pet peeves.

Momentum - Few things take a pounding in science films like Newtonian physics. Star Trek (movies and television shows) - we’re zipping along at Warp 8 and the engines go down. And we stop. Now, when it comes to warp speed, we really don’t know much about how it would work (if it even would), so I don’t have a problem with popping out of warp into normal space. However, in normal space, shutting off the propulsion will just mean you’ll keep going. In fact, you’re likely to be in more trouble than standing still. Standing still, you know, means you aren’t going to run into something.

Side note - There’s a very good short story called “Cold Equations” by Tom Godwin which is touted, and rightly, as an excellent example how physics (and science) doesn’t care about whether someone lives or dies. Unfortunately, the science is off. In the story, the transports are fueled with no contingency fuel, just enough for the planned cargo and crew. They’re on their way, when the pilot discovers a stowaway going to see her brother. Because there’s no contingency (which is, in my opinion, a dumb way to do business), she has to be spaced, despite her tears and her brother’s anguish. Tragic. (He gives her an extra hour by changing the trajectory, but that’s silly, too - her weight only matters while speeding up or slowing down or changing direction) Except, since they’d launched with her weight on board, they were already short on fuel. Physics, whew, a tough taskmaster.

Angular momentum - Star Wars - Hey remember those cool shots of the Millenium Falcon zipping through the cloud of Empiric ships, flipping U-turns and dodging like mad? Uh, I kept waiting for people’s bodies to punch right through the hull. Anyone with experience in a fighter plane will tell you angular acceleration will eat your lunch, and your plane, if you pull too many g’s. As fast as they were going, the poor folks inside (not wearing seat belts, of course) would be pounded to mush against any hard surface. Don’t go talkin’ about gravity generators or dampers, ’cause I’m not going to buy it. If they really had those, why are they always being jarred out of seats and stuff? Speaking of the latter, why do shows like Star Trek and Star Wars forgo seat belts? The old (and much loved by me) original Star Trek had people tumbling around engineering and the bridge like dice. Why would any ship that moved at sublight and light speeds have standing engineering positions? Or seats without restraints? You can get tickets for that in cars that never bust 70 mph (113 kph).

Ignoring vacuum - Star Wars - Ah, shooting laser canons through open portholes, shuttles landing in bays open to space, Death Star under construction - just like you could do that open to space, with folks walking about without masks. In vacuum. Red Planet - Our refugee has made a habitat on the surface of Mars out of cloth with open bottoms that allowed air in and out. Mars, at its atmospheres densest point, is 0.011 atm (that’s 0.165 psia). I don’t think so. Not even if you breath really shallow.

Orbital Mechanics - Red Planet - There’s an impressive leap from the disabled rescue ship to an unmanned satellite ~1 km away in spacesuits. Ignoring, for the moment, the likelihood that the satellite would have life support or could facilitate their arrival on the surface, going across a km of open space between two vessels in almost undoubtedly different orbits going several km/second? Not bloody likely. This also applies to any movie where an orbiting but suddenly disabled ship will decay “within hours”. Space junk, even released in low orbit, usually takes weeks or months; any ship that decays within hours was flying stupidly low.

Holodecks - Star Trek (and others) - Building whole sets, with tactile interaction, using holograms? I can buy visual, smell and audio, but we don’t have light we can see or “eat” or “drink” or “sleep on” or “sit on”. It’s not a matter of speculation; photons don’t make solids. Nice try, though. (Note, that in a sophisticated VR suit with tactile sensor and or something that could interact with brains to simulate the experiences as “dreams” or “visions”, I would not have the same problem).

Are there are others? Sure. And, before I get blasted for being too hard on speculative fiction, let me tell you some things that don’t bother me: transporters (Star Trek), faster than speed of light travel, point to point travel/tesseract/wormholes (Stargate/Star Trek/others), replicators (Star Trek), simulated gravity, almost any biological anomaly or weirdness, hovercraft, cyborgs, artificial intelligence, complex robotics . . . the list goes on.

I also am pretty damn forgiving with such things as superheroes and other fantastic stories, including shapeshifting, amazing strength and imperviousness (yes, I like Wolverine), vampires, magic etc. There are plenty of things out there I can’t begin to explain. Except flying and that dumb thing where someone like Wonder Woman hold back a jet by digging in her heels.

But, hey, sometimes you gotta let go.

Read more...

Scientists Make Rotten Salesmen

>> Sunday, June 13, 2010


I was explaining to my husband how I just can't sell squat to anyone, even when I believe in the product. We were discussing good books and what people wanted to buy, and musing that epic type fantasy and science fiction were considered less than hot commodities despite clear examples of their popularity at the movie theater, how it seemed that what was hot just now, the trappings, seemed more important that the caliber of the story. When, in my opinion, movies/stories like Avatar and the Ring Series were great stories with the setting/genre almost immaterial.

Now, that's plenty of fodder for the peanut gallery, so feel free to have at, but we moved on because my husband understood exactly what I meant. His reaction: "Marketing is about selling crap, no offense to anyone. The product might be good or not, but it makes no difference to marketing."

Now, Lee could sell anything to anyone, up close and personal. Me, I never could sell anything, even though I never tried to sell anything that I didn't believe in 100%.

Then it hit me. And I said it. "Scientists make lousy salesmen." See, things are black and white for scientists. Things aren't this or that. They're likely this and data indicates that. We use words like theoretically to describe our best explanation of things. A doctor knows even the best treatments have side effects or don't work on everyone. A scientists knows that long term effects may not be clearly indicated by any single data point (in fact, quite the opposite). A good scientist is ready and willing (or should be) to throw away his most precious pet theories if the data comes in to say something different.

But conviction requires ignorance. To say something is absolutely right or absolutely wrong requires, well, either a lack of understanding on subtleties or a lack of morals. Possibly both. Unfortunately, the public wants conviction; they take it as a sign of honesty (and if they didn't televangelists would be out of business in seconds). They figure the guy who's most convincing must be the one that's right.

But is it true? The oil companies have told us that anything that distracts us from drilling no matter how dangerous or expensive that drilling might be (or who owns the land) hurts us all. The big bankers told us to trust that they knew what they were doing. After all, they were the brightest of the bright and we just wouldn't understand what they doing. It's complicated and takes experts. Surely, the clear recent examples of all the slick talkers that took investors for millions (and their stockholders and their employees) should be reason enough not to equate conviction with actual sincerity.

*Sigh* But we don't.

I love the stuff I write. I do. I believe in it and think it's good stuff. But I can't tell someone it's like X's book, because it isn't. I can't tell anyone that it's a given best seller. Who knows? I can't even say it's the "best" novel ever written. I don't even think so, but, if I did, I know there are too many different definitions of "best" for me to be able to speak for everyone else. Heck, I have more than one myself.

I believe in the book, but I'm not ignorant enough to be a good salesman.

Stinks, don't it?

Read more...

RS Classic: Sometimes I Don't Understand Stuff

>> Saturday, June 12, 2010

Another recycle and one I really liked writing. I wrote more on this topic at a later date.

I have never understood why some of the best stuff gets overlooked and other things, that make no sense or are clearly horse manure, are embraced (no, I will not be talking politics - ever, I hope).

My sister, shakespeare, reminded me of this by mentioning two movies that came out at nearly the same time and based on the same concept: Deep Impact and Armageddon. My sister thought the reason Deep Impact was overlooked was in the title, or at least in part. Me, I think the title Deep Impact is just fine. I think the real problem was that it was actually realistic.

The biggest thing that irked me was that NASA (which really should have known better) let the Armageddon crew film in NASA facilities and slap the NASA meatball on every visible surface. Normally, they are reluctant to do so (and I don’t think it was used in Deep Impact, or, at least, it was less prevalent.) So, here is this apparently NASA endorsed movie released at the same time of another movie. You’d think it was more “true” and believable. Well, you would be wrong.

Let’s figure out why (from my memory, so don’t expect perfection - especially since I’ve been trying to scrub Armageddon from my mind for some time).

Deep Impact - Detected impactor years ahead of time and focused on a single plan (from scratch) to get it done. Even with the best will in the world, this would have been a challenge. The fact that we have, in the past done the incredible (Apollo/Gemini/Mercury) in the short term with focus and the right minds, says it is not implausible.

Armageddon - We find out weeks/months ahead of time. Believe me, we’re completely boned. No way, not even the Russians or using military resources - even if we had rockets handy that could send something that big that far, we couldn’t do it. We have nothing to put people in that could take that.

Deep Impact - Select astronauts have been training for this difficult and challenging task for years. Duh! The unknowns alone mean that we need talented and capable people who have extensive experience and can adapt to ugly new challenges.

Armageddon - Ignore your talented astronaut corps and drag in some oil drillers from an off-shore oil platform, letting them call the shots and saying you can train them effectively in low/no gravity in suits in a matter of weeks to use a hand operated drill on a new surface. Brilliant! After all, we all know the offshore drilling is done via hand operated drill and I know, if I was going to drill on a far distant asteroid with only one chance, I’d be much more comfortable stressing the drilling experience. Because, after all, drilling expertise is almost unknown whereas familiarity and training with space gear and suits is a common skill. (I’ve worked with many astronauts, know how dedicated these people are. They are capable and confident people who also know how to keep their egos in check for the good of the mission. This movie offended me on their behalf.)
Armageddon - they launched a handily available titanium Shuttle and “refuel” it at the Mir Space Station (which they accidentally blow up) that has apparently grown large cryogenic fuel tanks somehow. Then, they store up enough “hydrogen/oxygen fuel” in their shuttle and zip off through meteoroid laden space, dodging meteoroids, then land on the asteroid. After landing, they are “trapped” in the payload bay and “shoot their way out” of the titanium Shuttle bay with a convenient machine gun on the “rover.” Alright, folks, do I have to explain how idiotic this is? The Mir didn’t have tanks or any way of “filling up” a Shuttle (and space born cryogenic tanks are not an easy thing to whip together, even for the innovative Russians). Shuttle engines can’t be started in space (which is why they aren’t being used for Ares). The Shuttle has no tanks (none) and no place to put them since the payload bay is filled with drilling equipment. Since meteoroids come screaming through here at 20-70 km/s (that’s 40x-140X the speed of a bullet), even Han Solo couldn’t dodge ‘em. As for the machine gun? Oy! Even my ex, redneck that he was and complaining about my complaints, looked up at that and said, “Alright, that’s stupid.”

Deep Impact - None of that kind of stupidity, so I couldn’t compare it, but they did show people planet side making some hard decisions that you would not like to see free people having to make. I personally think that the fact they did this is what made this movie less than successful - people didn’t want to believe that necessity might mean hard choices. I also think it’s what made this movie realistic. People think nature is gentle. Think of Hurricane Katrina. Think of the recent earthquake in China and all only children lost. Think of Hurricane Mitch. Think back to the tsunami that devastated the rim of the Indian ocean two years ago. Nature is not forgiving and physics has no pity.

Deep Impact - for all their planning, things went amiss and the crew had to sacrifice themselves to make a second opportunity that was partially successful. This is exactly the sort of thing I could expect an astronaut crew to do. No muss, no fuss, just do what they could to save humanity. And, to me, perfectly plausible. Although complete destruction was avoided, a pretty horrible prospect remained that will kill millions.
Armageddon - Our drilling crew (after screwing up repeatedly in the Neutral Buoyancy Lab), *gasp* screws up and our oil drilling hero decides to stick around to save humanity although people try to talk him into leaving. At the last minute, it blows up but the rest of our heroes can go home to an untouched planet. Uh, yeah. I’m so buying that.

It occurs to me that it’s dreck like Armageddon that makes it so hard to accomplish things for NASA. NASA knows life is like Deep Impact, full of tough choices and real physics. Politicians and the populace think that it can all be taken care of with bailing wire and guts (which are relatively cheaper). Problem is, it can’t and they can’t forgive NASA for not living up to expectations that are unrealistic, while NASA gets sent down one blind stupid alley after another to suit the vagaries of the people they answer to and end up - nowhere. What a waste!

I think this is pertinent on many levels today. People want things "cleaned up", someone to wave a magic wand and have it all go away. Reality bites.

Read more...

RS Classic: The Truth About Decompression

>> Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Another science related blog thanks to my odd associative logic. I hope you enjoy it.

Part of what I want to do here, and I haven’t really pursued this yet, is talk about fiction, things I write and things I like to read. Oddly enough, this current stream of science related blogs is much like how I do a novel, with one things making me think of something else. Truly, I’m almost a study in associative thinking.

So, in that vein, here’s another topic that the last topic made me think of: the effects of vacuum on people.

Now, most people think depressurization (exposure to vacuum) is like the movies. Spontaneous eyeballs popping out of one’s head, perhaps a messy explosion. Bad news for those that like that kind of gore (but good news for the rest of us): uh, no. Truth is, though it’s not the way I’d want to go out, an explosion is unlikely unless you try to hold your breath (psst, that won’t help you). Skin is more than capable of taking the 1 atm pressure differential.

So, what is it like? Well, for those that have experienced it and lived (and there are some), it wasn’t fun. Saliva boiling away in your mouth is one of the things generally remembered without joy. Flesh does swell from this ebulism and unconsciousness comes quickly, usually within seconds. It’s happened in vacuum test chambers (and kudos to the folks that run those facilities by the way, they can repress chambers from a hard vacuum to 10.2 psia (703 mbar) in a matter of seconds, where a lock observer can get in and help rescue the victim. Within 30 seconds, everything’s back to normal). People exposed to hard vacuum, if they can be repressed quickly, may get the bends and have other short term discomforts or conditions but usually recover completely if exposure is less than 90 seconds. This might not be true if the decompression is rapid, as alveoli in the lungs can rupture as can sinuses and ear drums. In fact, even small pressure drops can be fatal if they are very rapid.

An interesting study of vacuum without actually going out into space were the very high altitude jumps performed as several series. In the Excelsior jumps, Joe Kittinger made a number of altitude record parachute jumps in a pressure suit culminating in the highest at 102,800 where his glove sprang a leak and that hand swelled and was very painful, but three hours later, it was back to normal.

But, if one goes slowly and has sufficient oxygen to provide the appropriate partial pressure of oxygen, though, one can survive. In fact, those who go out in the suits go out in suits with a total pressure of about 4.3 psia (296 mbar), though they have to go in 100% oxygen to do it. Why, you might ask? Because every bit of extra pressure used in the suit, they have to work against it to move. What I mean is, good luck finding an EVA astronaut who isn’t in excellent shape: EVA is hard work. But I digress.

Now, have we had ugly Hollywood type decompressions? Sadly, yes, though it wasn’t with 1 atmosphere, but actually involved diving pressures. Wikipedia has a good article on the Byford Dolphin calamity but I warn you, it’s not for the weak-stomached. No pictures, but the description is horrific. In that case, the explosive decompression was a differential pressure of ~60 atmospheres. In that scenario, the effects on people were pretty brutal.

Now, interested in some little known information you won’t hear every day on vacuums? In my first job, I worked in a facility that had a number of vacuum and environmental chambers. Apparently, early in the space program, they had “played with” a number of different creepy crawlies in the vacuum jars. Arachniphobiacs will be pleased to note that spiders pumped down to vacuum will explode. Take that, you brown recluse you.

Cockroaches, however, will just lie still and, even if you leave them at vacuum for several days, when you pump it back to ambient, they’ll start to move again like nothing happened.

*Shudders*

Read more...

Commercial Human Spaceflight

>> Friday, June 4, 2010


The Falcon 9 test flight, just launched successfully, is unmanned (as all the best test flights are), but it's a very important test flight. At this time SpaceX is an outlier on the notion that commercial ventures can make effective heavy lift rockets and, potentially, send people into space.

This is thrilling for many. It's probably a bit scary for several still entangled in the Constellation Program, especially given its uncertain future. Some (many of whom were all warm and fuzzy about commercial human spaceflight until it became competition) are probably a bit worried or frustrated.

I'm not. I'm thrilled it was a success (though I don't know yet how successful it was).

This is a great thing. Not just for SpaceX. Not just for commercial spaceflight (human or otherwise). Not just for America or any other country. Why?

Because every time space becomes more accessible, every time we find a new way to get there (especially given the dearth of truly new rockets the past few decades), every new option we open up, makes the possibility of really exploring the universe, really making a home in space, really colonizing the moon or orbit . . . just a little less impossible.

Will Constellation, in some slimmed down form, survive? I have no idea. But having another possibility, another option out there not only forces NASA to compete and excel, but it does the same for Space X. Best case, when we need to get astronauts back to the ISS or, perhaps, even send out a vehicle to do more, we may have another option than we did before.

Now, I feel strongly that the NASA standards out there for safety, redundancy and reliability, for operability and control of manned space vehicles is still pertinent even to commercial ventures, especially if we're putting astronauts out there.

But it's a key step. In the end, for space travel to mean something, it's going to have to belong to all of us, not just a handful of specially trained highly educated specialists or pilots. And this, this is a step along that path.

Congrats.

Read more...

RS Classics: What About the Hubble Space Telescope?

>> Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Yep, it's another classic, this one written before the last (and wonderfully successful) Hubble Servicing Mission. Since I know my way around Hubble, EVA-wise, I'm adding it to the list.

Kathleen asked how we were going to service the Hubble and the ISS. It’s a fine question with an easy answer, but I think a lot of people will be dismayed to realize that Hubble is going to be out of reach for future servicing. After all, the gorgeous photographs coming from Hubble are one of the ways NASA touches regular folks. For those that are worried, don’t be.

For Hubble, the upcoming servicing mission (4, sort of) later this year, it’s unlikely we’ll ever service Hubble again. There were only planned to be four servicing mission (this will actually be the fifth). Of course, we had to make repairs and adjustments we never planned, like the corrective optics installed on Servicing Mission 1. Servicing Mission 3 also became servicing missions 3A and 3B because of the need to replace ailing gyros sooner rather than later (SM 3A). Unfortunately, the time in safe mode affected the electronics, so additional fixes were required for SM 3B, in addition to planned upgrades. As the EVA Safety lead for the last two missions, SM 3A and SM 3B, I can tell you they’re tough. Usually at least EVAs back to back, that are long, arduous, complicated and challenging. Fortunately, the Hubble folks are very responsive at finding ways to fix what was never planned to be fixed and we usually have exceptional EVA astronauts doing the work. It was a pleasure to work with all of them.

Hubble is the only one of the Great Observatories that had a low enough orbit to service or required it. The other great observatories: The Gamma Ray Observatory, The Chandra Observatory, and the Spitzer Space Telescope. Those were all in orbits out of reach of the Shuttle or, in fact, any manned craft today. All but the Gamma Ray Observatory is still in service.

But never fear, Hubble lovers, work is underway building the James Webb telescope (in fact, one of my colleagues is working that now) that will do more than Hubble. They’re planning to launch that in 2013 and hopefully Hubble will survive until then.

Now, ISS is a real problem. The hope is that we will have another crew vehicle within a few years of the Shuttle’s retirement and people are working to achieve it. But the Crew Escape Vehicle (CEV) is a multipurpose craft that must also support Lunar missions. Multitaskers are not only challenging to build, but also tend not to be optimized.

In addition, the Russians can still send up Soyuz and Progress crafts, and the European Space Agency has already launched one Automated Transfer Vehicle (no crew) and JAXA, Japan’s Space Agency, is planning to launch their transfer vehicle, H-II Transfer Vehicle next year.

Having said that, none are a true replacement for Shuttle. She brings up more and brings down more: experiments, samples, crew, logistics, and even modules for assemblies. When the Shuttle retires, assembly will be effectively complete. We’ll be stuck with what we have unless it can be brought up in an automated fashion. And that will make a difference.

The Shuttle was definitely filling a niche and we just don’t have anything to replace her. Not now, probably never…

Unless the Commercial Human Spaceflight folks figure out something we haven’t. But, then, that’s an entirely different blog.

Read more...

Labels

Blog Makeover by LadyJava Creations