Showing posts with label global warming. Show all posts
Showing posts with label global warming. Show all posts

Know Your Uncertainty

>> Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Le sigh.

What's the word from the global warming naysayers? There's so much uncertainty. We can't precisely predict the results so why worry?

What they fail to mention is that, the direst and most outlandish predictions mentioned, even in the much hated An Inconvenient Truth (which talked of dire consequences decades down the line), are being overtaken by reality with much more damage, more ice melting, more consequences today than even the most pessimistic scientists predicted back then.

If the trending is all much worse than you ever expected, why in the world would you use that underprediction to justify feeling the end result is less likely? It's like going to your oncologist who tells you, "The tumor is growing faster than we ever expected," and you saying, "Whew. So I shouldn't worry, right? Clearly you have no idea what will happen."

Folks, natural laws have no pity. This planet couldn't care less about our survival. If we screw it up, if we don't take steps now, islands (and the innocent folks who lived there while contributing almost nothing to the problem) will disappear. Glaciers that feed rivers that billions depend on to survive will be no more. It's already happening.

All the pontificating in the world, all the politicians dressed in their birthday suits and extolling their haute couture won't matter a bit. Science is about reality and reality isn't changed with even the most fervent rhetoric, the most impassioned scoffing.

When destruction comes (and it's coming as long as we are idle), we'll have deserved it.

But it's our children that will pay.

Oh, and a fond farewell to one of the most dedicated workhorses in the Shuttle fleet, who came home safely for the last time today. Thank you, Discovery, for all your hard work.
You done good.

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Baby With the Bath Water

>> Thursday, July 8, 2010


I love my readers. Both The Mother and Rocketscienist (not me, a different one) gave me the perfect opportunity to expand my last post in the direction I wanted. The Mother by providing an example of what can go wrong by overreacting to a poorly thought out regulation and Rocketscienist by noting that we don't live in a binary world, even if we treat it like it is.

See, this was all triggered by a frustrating discussion I had with some tin whisker experts who began bemoaning the repercussions of RoHS ("Why won't they listen to the scientists?") and then turn and say all environmentalists are stupid and short-sighted, all regulation is wrong and then segway into the fact that global warming is "disproved." Global warming, you know, that environmental issue brought forward by scientists.

/slaps head

First off, there's nothing that makes an expert look stupid like bemoaning the fact he's not given credence and then dismissing other experts as hacks based on the same popular media they were just condemning. As I expostulated here. Hypocrisy only makes the hypocrite look bad (well, and gives all scientists, including themselves, a bad name. Sigh.)

But secondly, there's a logical fallacy in the attitude if there's one "bad" regulation, they must all be bad. Not that the notion that "all bad things" can be eliminated with legislation is more logical. Too often, people respond to something wrong as a condemnation of everything similar.

For instance, the regulation The Mother mentioned is a case in point. The CFC regulations have been working. Although the ozone will be affected for a long time, the CFC concentrations that led to the anomaly have been noticeably reduced. That's a good thing for the world as a whole and a significant population of people. Not excluding inhalers from this regulation (inhalers likely had minimal impact on the overall CFC release) was short-sighted. I have to mention, though, that there IS an exception made for medical inhalers and some other uses and even a stock of CFCs for that particular purpose. I'll also add that that was likely an afterthought.

The problem isn't that something should have been done (or not). The key is doing the job smartly (and I can't disagree that politics often drives regulations far more than data or anything resembling sense). But that doesn't mean regulation is a bad thing - that's implementation, not the concept.

What's more, the right thing to do on one topic doesn't dictate the right thing to do on another topic. I'm of the opinion that a ban on lead for all electrical components is, indeed, a bad idea. However, there are likely components where lead removal would have little or no consequences. And, if I did think the whole thing was whacked, it doesn't follow that ALL environmental regulation is garbage.

I'm not objective. My father died of asbestosis. My father worked for EPA, whose efforts have gone a long way to improving water quality, reducing pollution, and, yes, reducing the likelihood that the next generation will have to worry about dying of asbestosis. Ironically, he also died from environmental causes after wading, hip-deep, through every toxic muck from one end of this country to another trying to figure out how to clean it up. So I get irked when someone tells me all environmental regulation is nonsense. They died to help the rest of us. I know an awful lot about how bad it used to be that we, who haven't lived with rivers that can be lit on fire, can't appreciate.

I also know that anything can be taken too far (like, say, some of the folks at PETA).

The answer isn't one extreme or the other. It's not all in the middle or slanting to one side. There isn't one answer or one solution. It's not no government or too much government. It's not all or nothing. It's not yes or no. There is no one answer for all our problems.

There are, however, potential solutions for each problem (or linked problems collectively). It's making the right rules, not just blanket rules. It's listening to the experts, doing one's homework and doing one's best to do the right thing - even if you have to change gears or backtrack later as, as rocketscienist pointed out, you discover what you did had unforeseen repercussions.

But, as long as people are willing to make kneejerk judgments based on what political party they are or what they're told they should think, as long as they characterize any group of people with extreme names instead of addressing the specific issues (eco-terrorist, for example, or hmm, I can't think of a conservative one - maybe someone can help me out) instead of looking at the data and working toward a smart solution, the pendulum will keep swinging back and forth.

And crashing into us coming and going.

Not that I'm opinionated or anything. :)

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Disparate Paths

>> Tuesday, March 2, 2010


People who frequent this blog, and you know who you are, would probably not be surprised to find I'm rather pro-environment. Not fanatic, mind you, but I do what I can to reduce my own consumption and favor opportunities to do more.

But it can't be done alone. I worry that we, as a nation, spent a lot of time not pursuing reducing our oil consumption (in fact, increasing it amazingly) instead of pursuing alternatives. And this isn't just a Bush issue. No one has done anything substantial on this for decades.

In general terms, on environmental issues, the "right" has generally been run counter to the environmental movement, favoring business now. At least two recent presidents have been oil men. As the current environmental issue generally revolves around the potential for man-made global climate changes as a direct result of our consumption of fossil fuels, belief in the scientists or the nay-sayers has dominated that argument.

I've found that frustrating. I have no trouble understanding the science side of the issue. Heck, the taught the greenhouse effect when I was in grade school and Venus is out there as a shining example of the effect gone hog wild. But what frustrated me was that, even if global warming was hooey, reducing our dependence on oil and coal was still a good thing, in fact, an inevitable thing.

Apparently, I am not the only to think so. Senator Lindsay Graham (R) of South Carolina says so, too. Now, as always, I won't quote the link here, but, in a nutshell, Senator Graham has recognized the need for changes in environmental policy. He doesn't embrace the notion of global climate change to do so, but he understands that our current path is unsustainable.

Truth is, folks, that's enough for me. His understanding that young voters are concerned (rightly so, in my mind) flavors his thinking, but I couldn't care less. I want congresspeople and senators to be responsive to their constituents. I want them to make some steps to help the situation. Is it as far as I'd like to see us go? As fast? No, but it's a step in the right direction.

And you know what, a step in the right direction is a far better thing than standing still.

If our goals are the same, we can still get there on disparate paths.

One reason I don't despair for this nation. Now, if we could just make this kind of thinking fashionable, we might get somewhere.

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Sunday Soapbox: Scientific Skeptics

>> Sunday, December 13, 2009


*Steps on Soapbox*

Despite my engineering background and job description, I often think of myself as a scientist. I take science very seriously and I have a great deal of physics backgroun - I like to understand why something works rather than being happy that it does.

I take science very seriously. I give a great deal of credence to the scientific process and fully support the requirements for peer review and consensus building that go forward with science. I understand the language used by scientists that allow for uncertainty and theories, that acknowledge limitations and the knowledge we don't have, the processes we don't fully understand, the unknowns for situations we have no way of predicting reliably. I understand what all this means when its applied to science.

This understanding means that I can understand that some children can still catch a disease they've been vaccinated against or that someone can react poorly to penicillin no matter how effective it is. And I can understand all this without being a doctor or assuming all doctors are quacks only out to suit themselves.

I understand that there are some animals today who's evolutional story is hard to fathom or seems counterintuitive (like pandas or platypi) without assuming the natural adaptation that we've seen in action does not exist or that the vast preponderance of data that demonstrates evolution has been working to form our living world for eons is false. I don't discount dinosaur bones or make up ridiculous theories to allow for a world only a few thousand years old. I'm not a biologist, and I am a scientist, but I'm not so conceited that I feel I have to doublecheck the wealth of data or the professional scientists who have been fact-checked and peer-reviewed by similar experts.

So, why is it that the same folks who think the creationists, moon hoaxers, and anti-vaccers are stupid and/or whack-jobs who should not be sullying the gene pool have no problem sitting on the side as the peer-reviewed, consensus-built scientific positions, built on a wealth of data and years of hard work by the climate scientists of this world and second-guessing their science, honesty and position?

I'm not a climate scientist, but I've taken the trouble to read the actual peer-reviewed articles and find out the wealth of information that's available to support concerns and growing alarm on the way we may be changing our climate. I've seen the real changes already there (long before even the most pessimistic predictions a few decades back). Why is that? What makes a doctor or a biologist or a physicist or even a meteorologist or an engineer or, heaven help me, lawyers think they are qualified to understand and judge the science without the same background?

Look in peer-reviewed journals and the story is all the same. We're not sure what will happen or how fast. Here are some possibilities. But, the basis for the article is always the same. We have changed the world with our emissions and we're going to keep changing it unless we do something, and soon. You know how many peer-reviewed articles have been published the last ten years with evidence that says the opposite? If you guessed "not many if not none," you'd be about right.

Yet, for some reason, the same scientists who bemoan the fact that the general public gives as much credence to the general media as they do scientific venues seem to have no problems accepting the unsubstantiated (and frequently debunked) notions on blogs and mainstream media when the story is the climate change.

I've got to say, I just don't get that. Either the scientific process works or it doesn't. Either we can trust the mainstream media gets stuff right for science (and should give it the same credence as peer-reviewed articles) or we shouldn't, no matter what the science described is. Bad enough laymen don't get it; it seems unforgivable when scientists (who should know better).

And, if you're a scientist frustrated by the way the public has misstated and misused your science, give that some thought before you jump on the "there's equal science on both sides of the global climate change question" may I suggest you do some research. (In other words, if you're quoting Al Gore as a scientist, you have not done your homework).

That's all I'm saying.

*Steps off soapbox*

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Soapbox Sunday: Do Your Homework

>> Sunday, December 6, 2009


*Steps on Soapbox*

I've talked about moving beyond the me, me, me mindset and talked before about how everyone should be doing some critical thinking. In this and that post, I've definitely mentioned giving science credence, putting fact before hysteria.

This is why I get so frustrated when it comes to talking global climate change. The people with the data, with the science, who have patiently been telling the same story for decades, been pooh-poohed by the media, had their conclusions ridiculed and misrepresented by many who had no data but had a definite financial advantage in maintaining our addiction to oil.

Setting aside the science of climate change for the moment, let's recap the up and down sides.

If we ignore the potential for global climate change and go on as we are now, using oil and coal as if it they were indefinite resources that will be as they are now. Unfortunately, of course, they aren't. Even the most optimistic estimates put oil as drying up within a lifespan. But long before we "run out," the cost will go through the roof as the easy resources are used up, leaving those that are more and more expensive to extract. The thirst and need for oil will fuel more conflicts, drive more "alliances" with the unsavory. Meanwhile, the price will continue to climb. The price at the pump is more than double what it was at the pumps ten years ago. We've absorbed it and the oil companies have made record profits.

They may not make record profits indefinitely because oil will become more and more expensive to obtain. But they'll make a profit because we will have no choice but to pay it. Why? Because we didn't take the opportunity now to develop other resources, we didn't build our houses to be efficient, even though there are many proven options available. We've swallowed the story that it's too expensive, refusing to think of what the cost will be when we're paying 5X more for energy and needing the same time to develop hardware than we have now. Stupid.

Improving energy efficiency represents money we don't spend. Period. It's energy we don't use and money we don't pay indefinitely. A solar array represents energy you won't be using from now on. What's not to love about that? What's the down side? The only disadvantages to alternate energy sources are their technical immaturity and production cost, both of which could be drastically improved with increased demand.

This helps you, for those of you focused on me, me, me. And reduces the incentives for war. For our poor overworked soldiers (and their families) who have been through the wringer the past decade or so.

And, for completeness, let's not forget the pain and suffering changes in our global climate can cause, not just for us (though for us, too) but also for many nations who are blameless in causing this particular problem. That's not hysteria, that's an evidence-based conclusion. By people who put their jobs on the line to tell us, by those who have examined data and written peer reviewed papers over the past several decades.

You want to know why you can't find peer reviewed papers that refute those findings? 'Cause there aren't any. There are self-proclaimed naysayers writing books and getting on regular media with the real hysteria - "It's too expensive to save money on energy now and forever! Use oil indefinitely or at least until we run out!" they say. Surely, folks, we're smarter than that.

But, hey, don't take my word for it - after all, I'm not a climate expert. Do you own research with the people who know their stuff. Here are some links.

http://scholarsandrogues.wordpress.com/2007/07/23/anti-global-heating-claims-a-reasonably-thorough-debunking/
http://www.irregulartimes.com/onclimatechange.html
http://www.realclimate.org/
http://mediamatters.org/research/200703230007

*Steps off soapbox*

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