Know Your Uncertainty

Le sigh.

What's the word from the global warming naysayers? There's so much uncertainty. We can't precisely predict the results so why worry?

What they fail to mention is that, the direst and most outlandish predictions mentioned, even in the much hated An Inconvenient Truth (which talked of dire consequences decades down the line), are being overtaken by reality with much more damage, more ice melting, more consequences today than even the most pessimistic scientists predicted back then.

If the trending is all much worse than you ever expected, why in the world would you use that underprediction to justify feeling the end result is less likely? It's like going to your oncologist who tells you, "The tumor is growing faster than we ever expected," and you saying, "Whew. So I shouldn't worry, right? Clearly you have no idea what will happen."

Folks, natural laws have no pity. This planet couldn't care less about our survival. If we screw it up, if we don't take steps now, islands (and the innocent folks who lived there while contributing almost nothing to the problem) will disappear. Glaciers that feed rivers that billions depend on to survive will be no more. It's already happening.

All the pontificating in the world, all the politicians dressed in their birthday suits and extolling their haute couture won't matter a bit. Science is about reality and reality isn't changed with even the most fervent rhetoric, the most impassioned scoffing.

When destruction comes (and it's coming as long as we are idle), we'll have deserved it.

But it's our children that will pay.

Oh, and a fond farewell to one of the most dedicated workhorses in the Shuttle fleet, who came home safely for the last time today. Thank you, Discovery, for all your hard work.
You done good.

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