No Love for Cassandra

I heard an interesting story on CNN while waiting at dentist. (Note to self, one shouldn't have to go the dentist the same day you're flying out of town on travel.) Anyway, they were talking about a scientist in Italy who became convinced there was going to be an earthquake based on increased levels of radon gas. He told people to evacuate; the politicians ignored him. He went around with his "Get out NOW" message blaring from his car and they kicked him out.

And the quake happened.

The reporter's message: always listen to scientists.

*Sigh* Good message, wrong reason. Scientists can make mistakes like anyone else (including in being too cautious and not cautious enough); our strength is that we usually look at diverse data to second guess ourselves and we try to get concurrence with other scientists as a sanity check. And, all good scientists are after the truth (I've written about "bad scientists" before, so I'll leave that off here).

So, the politicians were right to be skeptical of his theory. But they were still wrong.

Because, sometimes, you know. And you don't have to be a scientist to sometimes just know. It can be canceling a flight at the last minute because you had a bad feeling about it. It can be talking to a suspect and knowing he's the one. It can be gardening outside and knowing the baby's crying. It can be listening to a sales pitch or a news story or a priest or a contractor and knowing what they're saying is dead wrong.

Those of you who don't know me will probably be surprised to hear a scientist talk like this, but I know what I've learned and I know what I know. You see, I once saw a Shuttle break up for years during reentry, in dreams, and saw it on my TV screen.

I listen now when I know.

If I hear that Cassandra voice blaring from the car in desperation, I'll be listening, there too. I've been that guy.

P.S. I'll be returning to my regular weekly features next week.